The Light at the End of the Tunnel

One thing seems certain, Irish football fortunes are going to snap back faster than the housing market. For the first time since 2005 I’m forecasting returns above guidance for the Irish. Of course, that doesn’t mean much coming on the heels of last season’s clusterbacle, but this season looks like a good buying opportunity.

I knew the Irish were over-hyped in 2006, because we were in prime over-hype position. We greatly exceeded expectations in 2005 and we were returning players at the glamor positions, which is all any preseason prognosticators have the ability to focus on. Yet we had significant losses and weaknesses. Michigan was in a similar over-hype position last season, after exceeding expectations in 2006 and returning glamor players at quarterback, running back and wide receiver.

Heading into 2008, the Irish are now in a prime under-hype position. Notre Dame underperformed against any expectation last year leading Athlon to rank the Irish 60th in the country in their pre-season rankings (purportedly.) But the Irish talent level is rising back to contender status and we should be in title race by 2009. This chart on the right shows four and five star players weighted to the junior, senior and 5th year classes. As you can see Notre Dame is spiking dramatically up this year (granted this was done before Rueland, Frazier, Carufel and Jones transferred,) but regardless you can see a sharp rebound for the Irish in 2008. And one reason I’m not as fazed by the defections is that everyone of those players was beaten out by a younger player.

I’m gaining slow confidence that we’re going to see a significant Irish resurgence for three reasons.

First, the overall talent level is finally rising from underneath. That means for the first time in years, we’re going to have heated competition at most positions. If you remember last year at the Blue and Gold game we didn’t have enough offensive linemen to make a two deep. This year, we’re going to have six talented and fairly seasoned offensive linemen who can almost legally drink and you have to like the potential of a guy like Chris Stewart and the attitude of players like Wenger, Turk and Olsen. And even at positions where we don’t have great depth, we’ve at least got young talent coming in. It’s certainly not a perfect mix, but it’s hard to improve when your starters are young and surrounded by more young.

Second, Weis has made some very positive coaching moves the last two years. He deserves a great deal of credit for dumping Minter (they didn’t mesh) and hiring Brown and now Tenuta. Those are outstanding additions and I think we’ll see much better player development on defense. Additionally, Weis stepping out of the signal caller role shows great self-awareness (albeit forced a bit) and hopefully will lead to a stronger run-pass mix which will in turn set Clausen up for success.

Third, Clausen himself. Our quarterbacks were sacked over 50 times!!! last season and Clausen still put up respectable numbers. I think Jimmy showed much better toughness and field awareness than he got credit for considering almost every play was a jail break and our receivers were, to be kind, not yet ready for prime time. By the second half of this year (assuming we finally get some blocking,) I think Clausen will be playing at a very high level. Weis’s offense demands accuracy from the quarterback, which is why I think Clausen could be playing at a higher level than Quinn in just his sophomore season. If our freshmen and sophomore wide receivers can reach their potential early and Hughes and Allen can create some room, we might see a dramatic jump up the offensive rankings this season.

Above all, despite poor recruiting and numbers in the senior and 5th year classes, we’re finally going to have three straight classes with decent talent and numbers. We’re building depth, something we never had under Davieham or in Weis’s first three seasons. We’re finally becoming a program school again.

And as I pointed out previously, just as everything can go wrong in a perfect storm like last season, just fixing one or two parts can snowball rapidly in a positive direction.

If this team can just start believing it can win, the Irish could become the surprise story of 2008.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

Racial Bias and Willingham

I’m biased.

I know this because I publicly came out in support of Tyrone Willingham when he was hired by Notre Dame, noting on this site that the color of his skin would be both good for the program and good for minorities in coaching.

Color made a difference to me in the way I thought about future performance on the job and in image. And in a profession overwhelmingly controlled by white males coaching black athletes, I genuinely thought that Willingham might be a leader who would open doors and change what I viewed (and view) as a backward dynamic. I bought into the vision that Willingham was a boundary breaking hire.

I was wrong.

I now think Willingham is a detrimental force to the cause he no doubt deeply believes in.

When Willingham publicly decried the lack of head coaching jobs for black Americans this past weekend, he made an irrefutable point… that something in the system is broken. Willingham further points to the good ol’ boy network as a culprit, which would appear to have validity in my opinion. “You’ve got to explain the numbers,” said Willingham. “There’s more than one answer. But it’s alive and well in certain places, yes.”

He should be pointing the finger in the mirror.

Willingham has done as much to hurt the cause of minority coaches as any single coach in recent memory. I would argue that he’s created new minority roadblocks others must now overcome and in some respects, Willingham closed far more doors than he opened… if he opened any to begin with.

Let me explain my beliefs and my frustrations. The stepping stone to a head coaching position is a coordinator position. Now granted, Willingham skipped this step on his way to the head coaching position at Stanford, but being a coordinator is almost a prerequisite to the head coaching position (note that it certainly doesn’t guarantee success.)

Yet in his six years at Notre Dame and Washington, Willingham has hired exactly zero minority coordinators.

Zero.

Zero into the position that is the stepping stone to the head coaching chair. In contrast, since Willingham left, Notre Dame filled both of its coordinator positions with black coaches. Now, I’m not saying that Corwin Brown or Mike Haywood were hired for their color, but their positions at Notre Dame will make them prime candidates to step into the head chair at another school. In contrast, IN SIX YEARS, Willingham couldn’t find one minority worthy of being his second?

There would have been no better way to further the cause of minority coaches than by the notoriety gained by being a coordinator at Notre Dame. I don’t know what the minority pool looks like for Head Coaches, but theoretically you would think there has to be a bigger pool to choose from when hiring for a coordinator position. Yet, Tyrone Willingham hired whites for those key positions… again, the ones that make up the pool for the next head coaching ranks.

But his worst transgression, by far, was legitimizing the idea that it’s okay to blame racism without cause for personal failures.

Willingham was given the biggest stage in the college football world and failed. There’s no loss of dignity in failure. There is great loss of dignity in blaming racism without cause or proof. And worse, he did it the coward’s way, by not challenging charges of racism in the press that he knew had no factual support even when put on the spot by John Saunders, all while banking millions from Notre Dame with the knowledge that he had already contacted the University of Washington about leaving Notre Dame. Which, by the way, is grounds for firing with cause (read, no buyout.)

And be clear on this, Notre Dame Fans wanted Willingham to succeed.

We needed to him to succeed.

We were, in fact, desperate for him to succeed.

But when wins and recruiting nose dived simultaneously while Willingham talked in sweeping platitudes about nothing and perfected his lob wedge, those of us who followed the program closely knew Notre Dame was on the precipice of a virtual death penalty.

Willingham, despite one very good class, was considered a lazy recruiter (as noted in the Chicago Tribune) who was letting the program rot from underneath. The results of which we were treated to on the field this last year (Willingham’s last two classes were the juniors and seniors.) Don’t get me wrong, he was a great recruiter when he got into a family’s living room, but unlike Weis, Willingham expected the talent to come to him. It didn’t. Turns out, even at Notre Dame, you have to work for it.

But this isn’t just one data point. Willingham’s pattern of blame has continued at Washington. Last year Willingham’s job was all but over after Washington President Mark Emmert had decided to go in a new direction. Again, Willingham, without having to do the dirty work himself played the race card. Athletic Director Todd Turner intervened, lining up power brokers while James Bible, president of the Seattle-King County NAACP requested a meeting with Emmert to discuss “the value of Coach Willingham to this community.”

The Turner/Willingham end around forced Emmert’s hand.

Willingham won again, but the subversive actions of Turner in support of Willingham, reportedly cost him his job.

And at what cost to other aspiring black coaches?

If you can’t fire a black head coach with cause (and an enormous) payday, than what signal does that send to other schools who might hire a minority head coach?

I’ll answer.

To a school it means you may not be able to fire him when you want to despite performance on the field. And that equates to a much riskier long term hire, which tilts the scale away from prospective black head coaches.

I know this because “fireability” is a key employment proposition at every major company. It’s the very reason many companies won’t do business in Spain and France, because changing out talent mistakes becomes incredibly costly. But in college football, it’s not just cost which is prohibitive, but also the negative publicity that comes with firing a minority head coach. And Willingham’s passive aggressive tacit approval of racial attacks on Notre Dame showed everyone how painful a process that can be. It would have been far more beneficial to those who came after him to refute unfounded charges rather that tacitely and cowardly advancing them without the benefit of proof.

So if you’re an AD on the sideline you’re thinking, “Do I need this headache? I just want a winning team.”

Not only isn’t Willingham filling the minority pipeline with potential head coaching candidates, he’s created a giant hurdle for others like him by selfishly protecting his own reputation and job.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

Passing Inefficiency

Omahadomer has finally put some numbers behind my dead horse beaten argument that Notre Dame threw the ball far too much that last few years despite a sieve of an offensive line. If you add sacks in, Notre Dame completed… just 48% of passes attempted in 2007. More than half of our attempts went for zero or negative yards and 56 of those went for negative yards and another 9 gave the ball to the other team. What was even more shocking to me was how dreadful 2006 was in adjusted yards per attempt. Add back in sacks, and Quinn’s completion % was 57% in 2006. Here’s OD’s analysis.

The “raw” yards per passing attempt is simply yards gained passing divided by passing attempts. An average figure for a college team is usually about 6.9 yards per attempt.

These figures are always higher than average yards per rushing attempt, which might lead one to wonder why teams ever run the ball. But running is a lower-risk proposition (lost fumbles on true running plays occur with only about 1/3 the frequency of turnovers on passing plays if one includes fumbles on snaps), the risk of a zero gain is lower and yards per passing attempt overstates the net benefits of passing.

In 2007 N.D. averaged 5.2 yards per passing attempt, which was one of the worst in the nation. But really it was worse than that. In 2006 N.D. averaged 7.3 per passing attempt (which was good) and in 2005 N.D. averaged 8.7 per passing attempt, which was excellent.

However, even those big differences understate how much better the passing attack was in 2005 and 2006 than it was in 2007. Sacks are really passing attempts too, so they should be counted as passing attempts and the negative yardage subtracted from the passing total. Moreover, interceptions should be counted as about negative 50 yards. Of course, not all interceptions are created equally. Some are basically harmless (e.g., a Hail Mary at the end of the half that’s intercepted instead of being knocked down), once in awhile they’re actually helpful (e.g., on 4th down the defender reflexively catches the ball instead of knocking it down which would actually result in better field position) and sometimes they’re positively devastating (e.g., an interception returned 100 yards for a touchdown). But on average they deprive a team of a chance to advance the ball and at least to punt and change field position. So let’s use negative 50 as a rough approximation.

So let’s calculate a “net” yards per passing attempt as follows: (gross passing yardage – sack yardage – (interceptions x 50 yards))/(passing attempts plus sacks).

In 2005, Quinn’s true yards per passing attempt was 7.3 yards per passing attempt and in 2006 it was 5.7. I’m not quite ready to say that these figures are the equivalent of rushing the ball for 7.3 or 5.7 per attempt, but they do suggest that a team that can put up numbers like that legitimately might favor the pass.

In 2005, N.D.’s “true” yards per rush was about 4.6 because that’s what N.D.’s tailbacks who saw significant action (Walker and Thomas) averaged between them. So the 2005 might have rightfully been one where the play calls should have favored the pass.

In 2006 it was a more even proposition because N.D.’s tailbacks who got more than a few carries(Walker, Aldridge and Thomas) averaged about 4.9 per carry.

Now, if we turn to 2007, it’s actually hard to see why N.D. rationally tried to throw the ball at all, except perhaps to keep teams from just playing the rush. N.D. averaged a pitiful 2.5 per passing attempt (there was no meaningful difference between Clausen and Sharpley; Clausen averaged 2.5 and Sharpley 2.6). However, while N.D.’s rushing attack was not as good per carry as it was in 2005 and 2006 it didn’t see nearly the collapse that the passing game did. The five N.D. tailbacks who got carries last year (Aldridge, Allen, Hughes, Thomas and Jabbie) averaged just a hair over 4.0 per carry.

It’s probably not news to anyone, but N.D. really would have been much better of running the ball more last year. I, for one, however underestimated just how much better off N.D. would have been being a run heavy team. However, if sacks are counted as passing attempts, N.D. actually attempted to pass on 54% of the plays from scrimmage, which was similar to prior years under Weis (56-44 passing in 2006 and 50.3-49.7 passing in 2005).

I hope the basic message of it from last year has gotten home to Weis and Haywood. I expect that N.D. will be more proficient passing the ball than it was last year. But N.D. needs to commit to the run and probably be a run-heavy team for next year. Unless the “true” yards per passing attempt at least doubles to the low 5’s, N.D. is likely to be much better off keeping the ball on the ground for a large majority of the plays.

One hopes this two year trend is a “passing” one.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

The Fightin’ Irish

Manners have their place. The football field is not one of them. For too long it seems that ND has been Monkified on the football field. Neutered, declawed, deboned, denied, defeated.

Thinking back, the Fightin‘ Irish haven’t played with emotion and true grit as a team for years. Oh sure there have been a couple of games, but in many ways the team’s play typified the effete lace curtain standard set by the old regime. Ever notice that niceness and politeness often give way to complacency and losing… almost becoming an excuse unto themselves because those other guys “didn’t play by the rules?”

The reality is that the rules are defined by the field of play on that day. If the refs are allowing holding, you hold. If the refs are allowing physical play, you rise to the occasion and hit them in the mouth. Those who hide behind the rules are doomed to failure.

“Go out there and hit ’em, crack ’em, crack ’em, smack ’em! Fight to live. Fight to win, win, win, win!” – Knute Rockne

Every game has rules, but once you get on the field, the rules bend and sometimes break under the stress of competition. If you’re going to win you have to press your man and many times the rules to the breaking point. That’s life. Like Rockne said, you have to fight to live and fight to win. One of the things I give Charlie the most credit for is for not complaining about the Bush Push. USC did what they had to do and won. Those aren’t the rules, but they were on that day.

And when the players do get into a fight here or there, talk a little trash or celebrate too much, Irish fans have to know, that’s okay. It’s part of the game. ND fans are full of micro policy police worried that every brush with the edge will tarnish ND’s reputation. Like the playground mother who won’t let boys be boys because they worry how it will make them look… that we’ll be like everyone else. Well, if that’s fighting for victory, so be it.

“It’s not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or how the doer of deeds could have done them better, but the man who is actually in the arena, who’s face is marred by dust and sweat and blood.” – Teddy Roosevelt

When ND won in ’88, it wasn’t always pretty. But guys like Stams and Pritchett would do whatever it took on the field to fight and win.

Now, of course there are boundaries and hopefully we won’t look as stupid as Boston College tearing up the turf or MSU/USC planting flags. But I write this because Charlie’s expecting a more vocal, more physical and more emotion filled football team this year… the Irish HAVE to play that way if they’re going to win and we saw some evidence of that at the Blue and Gold game. But I expect fans to use some perspective when things don’t look quite how they would have acted. We’re going to look cocky sometimes and nasty at others.

Football is a violent sport and not always fair.

If the Irish are going to win, they’re going to have to do it being the Fightin‘ Irish.

It is our legacy.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

Enough

LSU graduates less than half of the “students” who go to school there and play football, yet we celebrate them as champions.

Michigan graduates less than half of the African Americans who enroll as “students” and play football, yet this is supposedly a program that serves as a beacon for others?

USC graduates just barely over half of the “students” who go to school there and play football and Pete Carroll plays jokester while Trojans implode in the NFL due to character issues, yet this is held up as a model program?

That we continue to celebrate teams who use and discard student athletes is the real tragedy of college football.

Not only do many student athletes at “football schools” fail to graduate, but even for those that do graduate, many have been railroaded into majors that leave them with few options if their NFL ambitions fail (as happens for even for most 5-Star recruits.) So this is simple: If you’re graduating less than half of your players in any segment and they’re not being given a chance to pursue a meaningful major (see Michigan) then you’re far, far worse than “arrogant”… you’re an institution that legitimizes exploitation.

While all this plays out in the background (literally thousands of kids used by schools who dangle the possibility of college stardom and the NFL in front of them in exchange for their pledge to win one for the ripper) writers and talking heads stick their pens, computers and heads in the sand, ignore the obvious injustice and instead fruitlessly and mistakenly waste their time on perceived Notre Dame “arrogance.”

The reality is this: Notre Dame graduates its players at an almost unprecedented rate for a top program. Notre Dame makes allowances for great athletes, but it also immerses those athletes in a culture that breeds success. Other schools wall off their best athletes and treat them like zoo attractions, living in special dorms, making them eat at “football only” cafeterias and unburdening them with high level classes.

While the majority of Michigan’s players are forced into “football majors” that lead to nowhere, an examination of Notre Dame players shows that they’re being “herded” into the 3rd best undergraduate business school in the country… and even players who were considered marginal students when they arrived in South Bend are succeeding because they’re finally being taught how to succeed.

Here’s what’s different: At Notre Dame, these athletes are surrounded by competitive students AND great football players. At other schools they’re treated so differently they never develop the skills necessary to compete in the real world. This isn’t to say football players don’t get special assistance, they do, but they’re given it with the expectation that it will make them better… and it works.

The irony of the attacks of the masses on Notre Dame is that most of the attacks come from educated professionals who absolutely know better, but still can’t help themselves. When Charlie Weis says he’s not going to recruit thugs, part of that is just blunt talking Charlie prone to a touch of hyperbole, but part of that is fact. I won’t name names, but there are kids playing in South Central who would be considered thugs by normal society; they have arrest records for assault that were known before they were recruited. They’re what normal society considers thugs.

Is that arrogance to state you’re not going to recruit thugs…

or is it sanity?

He’s mirroring Bill Parcell’s comments last year: “I don’t want thugs and hoodlums on the team,” Parcells said of the types of players he’ll try to acquire. “I really don’t. I don’t want bad-character guys. I don’t want problem children.” – Bill Parcells

Notre Dame’s won the CFA award more than any other major college football program. It’s also won more national championships. It also graduates almost 100% of the student athletes who enroll there and stay for four years and it does that by supporting them and immersing them in a culture that’s “inclusionary” rather than exclusionary. The team GPA has set records under Weis because he makes players become students. Notre Dame isn’t the only school having success here, either.

How anyone with an ounce of empathy for the kids who are being used by big time programs can point at this as anything other than a positive boggles the senses. Look, Mario Manningham scored a 6 on the Wonderlic, not a 16, a 6. A 20 equals an IQ of a 100. Of 5 players scoring over 30 that were released, 3 were from Notre Dame.

The other day a New York Times writer of little note (yes that’s the dork from Jersey on the left) decried the fact that Notre Dame wanted to play Rutgers’ home games in a big time venue (and wrote that column with the tone and maturity of a jilted school girl) yet made no mention of the fact that other schools such as Ohio State aren’t even giving any home games to some of their opposition. None. Zero. You play us and thank us for the privilege. He also failed to mention that Notre Dame’s Big East affiliation helped saved the Big East from falling into oblivion and is the reason it’s able to negotiate secondary bowl deals. What Notre Dame is doing is what’s happening all over college football. Big schools are padding their schedules, moving to play more games at home and just aren’t agreeing to home and homes. The rules are changing. That’s the story and it’s not hard to figure out.

Look at who the Buckeyes played out of conference last year:

Youngstown State (Alumni Band)	Columbus, Ohio
Akron (Hall of Fame)	Columbus, Ohio
Washington	at Seattle, Wash.
Kent State	Columbus, Ohio

And Youngstown State doesn’t even get a home game out of the deal. It’s an away and an away. They play in Columbus next year as well. Neither does Akron. Of course that’s more money, but what about the spirit of the game? I can hear you snickering. The havenots have to play Ohio State on Columbus turf. The Buckeyes won’t set foot in Akron, Youngstown or Troy all of whom are on the OSU schedule. They don’t have to because they know the payday is worth it to the havenots. So Ohio Sate can schedule these teams pretty much as they want with no notion of a fair trade. The Gators are are doing the same thing. They play(ed) Western Kentucky, Troy and Florida Atlantic all in Gainesville. None will entertain the Gators for a home game.

Now, I’m not saying Notre Dame is right here (I don’t agree with it)… but the lack of professional perspective by a New York Times writer is… uh… never mind. The reality is that it’s happening all over the country, but this “balanced writer” would rather focus on ND “arrogance,” ignore perspective and the serious problems underpinning college football which are these:

• Players are being paid rather blatantly across the country. Want an easy story, just show up in the parking lot of any big time school or show up at their off campus apartment. No one in the media cares.
• Players don’t graduate and don’t make the NFL. No one in the media cares.
• Players graduate with useless majors. No one in the media cares.
• Teams over recruit players (this is you Nick Saban) knowing they’re going to have to kick some players to the curb. No one in the media cares.
• Teams win while violating almost every ethical standard surrounding student-athletes. No one in the media cares.
• Schools are scheduling cupcakes to increase their chances of making the BCS. No one in the media cares.
• The conference superpowers engineer fictitious conference games for extra revenue, while killing the idea of a playoff. No one in the media cares.

Enough of this posing, then hiding and accusing of the Irish by the media to get attention. Enough. If you can’t confront the elephant sitting on your lap swilling Bud with you on Saturday, the elephant that tells you schools are using and abusing kids, don’t suddenly act as if you’re now the conscience of football and vent at a school who hasn’t sunk close to that level of exploitation. You should jump up on your soap box and proclaim that Notre Dame, Duke and even, yes, BC are doing things the right way instead of looking for reasons to tear them down into the gutter with the rest of college football.

In short, show some guts you collection of vapid, attention seeking hypocrites.

Recognize what’s impossible to miss and embrace the good that’s going on around you, because if you don’t your profession (presumably your life’s work) is worth exactly what a fleeting moment of air time or day of Internet hits is worth, just a small inconsequential blip on the corporate bottom line.

Aim to be something greater than a media “hair puller” looking for a reaction.

Enough of the bullshit.

Enough.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

Crossing the Chasm (How ND Could Make the BCS)

To be upfront, I don’t think it’s likely that the Irish will make the BCS. I do think that (if the dominoes fall correctly) the Irish are capable of it. How could Notre Dame possibly get there after a 3-9 season? I think several things have to happen and they have to happen in concert with one another. To a certain extent these are dependent variables, if one happens it makes it much more likely that the others will.

1. First and foremost we can’t lose our key players. These guys can’t get hurt:

• Jimmy Clausen
• Dan Wenger
• Sam Young
• Ian Williams
• Brian Smith
• Kerry Neal
• Darrin Walls

We could afford to lose some of these players and have a good season, but not a BCS season.

2. We’re going to need several players to “cross the chasm,” grow from decent players or players with promise to very good to great players. Every year that teams make a substantial leap forward, we see some key players make this leap. This list is long.

On offense:

• Jimmy Clausen has to age up quickly. Most players in his year would still be considered freshmen. Clausen needs to make a quantum leap to a 65% passer if we’re going to be top team.
• Golden Tate needs to become a play-maker instead of a “go route” deep threat. It’s obvious to everyone that he has the speed and the hands to be a special player, the kind of player that can force a defense to loosen up. I’d also like to see us get him the ball on reverses and out of the backfield. If we do that he also becomes an effective decoy.
• The offensive line on the whole needs to make a quantum leap forward, but Sam Young and Chris Stewart have a chance to be dominating on run plays. If we can get a consistent push on that side of the line, then I expect Hughes and Allen to be able to be able to put up 100 yard games. Of course they (and the running backs) have to get better at pass blocking.

I actually feel as if these players all have a decent shot at crossing the chasm. On defense, there’s hope and it begins with Mo Richardson.

• Richardson has to make the jump from potential to playmaker. Word is that despite his size issue (not that much off Vernon Gholston) that Richardson has the strength to play defensive end. If Richardson can make this jump, the odds of Irish wins will increase exponentially. Don’t rule out John Ryan finally growing into the position he should have been playing all along.
• Ian Williams is another player who just has to get mature before his time. He was productive when he played last season, he has the size and a nice burst off the line. If Williams can make the jump along with Richardson then our chances for a good to great season go up dramatically.
• A middle linebacker. Will someone please rise to the occasion here?
• I’m not the least bit worried about our defensive backfield, we’re as talented as we’ve been there in 15 years.

What gives me great hope on defense (despite the lack of seniors and 5th years) is that we seem to have a cohesive coaching staff for the first time in years. Jappy deserves credit for the performance of the defensive line last season, whether it’s because of the influence of Brown or the lack of Minter, he coached up a better than expected defensive line last season. With Tenuta coaching the linebackers and Brown with the defensive backs, I’m expecting to see a completely different curve as far as player development is concerned. We could see some surprise players next year like Harrison (not Hunter) Smith. Though Smith becoming a player wouldn’t be much of a surprise — how we use him will be. What do you do with a kid that talented?

3. We’re going to need our freshmen to come to the party ready to play. In order, I think Ethan Johnson, Michael Floyd, Brandon Newman and Darius Fleming are going to have to be battle ready to provide depth. I’m most excited about Johnson’s ability to come in and make plays, this is a guy USC wanted badly. Floyd will be our best receiver (unless Tate improves) by the end of the season. Newman has to be able to spell Ian (and there’s some good buzz on Hafis Williams as well.) Since we’re apparently going to be brining the sink on every play, Fleming and possibly Filer are going to have to be able to step in and rush the passer. Luckily, this is usually one of the easier things for Freshmen to do. If these players can not only push the starters, but break through I think we’ll see them immediately raise the level of play across the board. One thing that has to help with recruiting is Weis’s propensity to play the best player regardless of seniority. At one time we had eleven freshmen starting last year. Of course the downside is that we’re still painfully young. Most teams consider our sophomores to be freshmen, juniors to be sophomores, seniors to be juniors and 5th years to be seniors.

4. Commit to the running game. Give Clausen a breather and use our deep stable of backs. Play Action off the running game and allow our junior led offensive line to develop consistency and rhythm. Remember, even a one yard running gain can generate positive momentum. A sack is devastating. I really believe that Weis’s sense memory killed us the last two years. While his situational playcalling instincts may have been right, in my opinion he still called plays as if the Patriots were executing them. And in theory, the plays should have worked, but in reality the moving parts, blocking schemes and inexperience made even simple plays look like goat ropes.

5. Complete the transformation. To be blunt, we’ve been told that there wasn’t good team chemistry the past two years. Lack of senior numbers and talent greatly affected team leadership. Last year’s team was rudderless. The real leaders were simply too young to lead and the older players were marginalized. This is actually fairly natural when you have such a dichotomy of talent and numbers between tenured players and newcomers. As I’ve written before, there’s just no way a small number of less talented players can effectively lead a larger number of more talented younger players. With Weis’s first real class now juniors, I think we’ll start to see the benefits of that transition this year and it will be complete by ’09.

6. The schedule has to give. I’ve read countless posts about how easy our schedule looks this year, but I’m not buying it, yet. Too many times I’ve seen us project an easy schedule only to have two-thirds of those teams gel and reach bowl games (the opposite is also true.) Looking at the schedule I do see some gimmes, SDSU, Syracuse and Navy. Other than those three I don’t see absolute locks, though I do think it’s more probable the Irish will see easier games against teams like BC, Purdue and Washington. North Carolina and Pitt are going to surprise some people this year and will not be easy games. I don’t know what to think about Stanford. What’s funny about fandom, is that fans on some of these other teams are predicting lock wins against ND this year. Objectivity is not a fan trait.

Is all of this probable? No.

Is it possible? Yes.

Barring Major injuries the Irish should be bowl bound this year, but if some of our key players can “cross the chasm” this season could be the prelude to a memorable ’09.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

Two Years Ago…

Notre Dame had just finished its final game masquerading as a school that proclaimed it believed in football excellence, but in reality settled for peer acceptance. Oregon State put a beaver tail exclamation point on the Davieham era with a 17 point beat down of Notre Dame in something called the Insight Bowl. The loss was the tail end of a dismal two years by Irish standards, with Notre Dame following up a losing 5-7 season with a 6-6 campaign and a third straight destruction by USC. Worse yet, Notre Dame was about to ink its second straight bottom rung recruiting class. It wasn’t a stretch to believe that another bad year on the field could give Notre Dame a virtual death penalty.

After Lou left, Notre Dame was never able to put success together on the field and in recruiting with any consistency. Here’s a look at the Davieham years:

1997 7-6
1998 9-3
1999 5-7
2000 9-3
2001 5-6
2002 10-3
2003 5-7
2004 6-6

omahadomer pointed this out awhile back. Like Charlie Brown about to finally kick the ball, Notre Dame looked like it could turn the corner three times during this stretch, but in the end fell flat faced. The lack of success on the field begot lack of success in recruiting and vice versa.

If Notre Dame had kept Willingham, I believe we might not have made a BCS bowl until after 2010.

What Weis has done is something Notre Dame hasn’t seen 1993: Back-to-back major bowl seasons and back-to-back top ten recruiting classes. That’s building a foundation of excellence that will finally allow Notre Dame to get off the mediocrity roller coaster.

So about that bowl game coming up. The odds are against ND winning on January 3rd. If both teams bring their “A” games and the breaks are even, LSU should win by more than a touchdown. Their domination of Miami last year demonstrated that Les Miles, maligned by some, can plan for the big game.

The bottom line is that LSU has as much talent as any team in the country and Notre Dame’s weaknesses are well documented.

But Notre Dame has a senior laden team and a month to prepare and get healthy. If Notre Dame can move the ball on the ground with any success against the Tiger’s 4th rated scoring defense, the Irish will be able to move it through the air — others have.

If that happens, we’ll take our Cheerios’ jokes with extra Sugar.

Have a great time in N’awlins, y’all.

Irish 26-18.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl

Harrison Smith to be Irish

The 6’2″, 205 safety stolen out of the cradle of the Vols not only clocked a sub 4.4 40, but he has natural football skills. Smith told Scout, “Awareness is probably my best strength. I can read what’s going on and what people are doing around me.” Those who have seen his film confirm his speed and his instincts, a rarity for so physically gifted an athlete.

Smith and huge Irish target Chris Donald both finished behind Irish recruit Golden Tate for Mr. Football in Tennessee. According to Scout’s free page,

he recorded 61 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, five interceptions (two returned for scores), three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries. On offense, Smith ran for 1,312 yards and 17 touchdowns on 155 carries. He also caught 32 passes for 446 yards and six touchdowns; he bench presses 305, squats 385 and has a 36″ vertical jump. Smith reports a 3.7 core GPA, 28 ACT and an 1850 SAT.

So he’s smart, too.

Rival Maryville High coach George Quarles offered up a strong compliment for Smith, “Harrison Smith is – and I love the guys we have from Maryville – but Harrison Smith is the real deal, I think,” Quarles said on the News Sentinel Sport Page radio show. “He’s super talented.”

WBIR interviewed Smith earlier this month.

Notre Dame Football, Charlie Weis, Sugar Bowl