Stars, Potential and Probability

As a follow-up to the last article, scratchman did an interesting analysis on Cartier Field of the 2002 recruiting class, which showed that star ratings have relevance. But it also showed something else… stars are no guarantee. 62% of 5-Star players (the very best — the ones we think are can’t miss prospects) didn’t get drafted. 79% of 4-Star players failed to drafted and 92% of 3-Star prospects didn’t get drafted. The takehome here is that you need to recruit aggressively and continuously because the odds are that even your best recruits won’t live up to their potential. Of course the good news story here for Notre Dame football is that the staff can sell NFL potential and education for the majority of 5-star kids who won’t make the NFL. Here’s scratchman’s article:

Star-Gazing

Each year I conduct a detailed analysis of the rivals class ratings and the
NFL draft. Each year the results look about the same. Stars are oly fair in
evaluating an individual player, they are excellent in evaluating an entire
group or recruiting class of players. The Question My question is Who from the
Rivals 2002 High School Recruiting class was drafted into the NFL and did their
their “Star” rating serve as any kind of a predictor of their draft position?
This does not mean that the players not drafted will not ultimately be
successful in the NFL or that if they were not drafted they were not impact
players for their college team. We know for sure that if a guy was drafted by
the NFL he was a true STUD college football player.

This is just one
COMPLETELY OBJECTIVE barometer of the value of “Stars” Methodology I downloaded
rivals classes 2002 to 2007 into a database spreadsheet. I have also downloaded
all NFL drafts beginning with 1997. I did the painstaking process of matching
these two databases to find where these guys ended up. This was hard because
players had nicknames and formal names. Some changed schools and changed
positions.

I THINK I got all of them matched that could be matched in
the NFL drafts 2005, 2006, and 2007. Results: NFL Draft Outcomes of the 2002
Rivals Recruiting Class

… Total…
….Total…..Total…Percent….Average
…..
DraftedUndrafted…Drafted…Draft….. Position
5-Star……15…………24………..39…….38%………..104
4-Star……67………..253…….320…….21%………..110
3-Star……39………..508…….547……..7%………….113
2-Star……24………..531…….555……..4%………….142
Total……145………1316…….1461…….10%

Conclusions
1.
Clearly 5-Stars are a great deal. Get all you can all the time.
2. Clearly
4-Stars are a great deal. Get all you can all the time.
3. Some 3-Stars will
turn out to be great players (Mike Hart, Braylon Edwards etc.) but for the most
part they are NOT the core stars of a Top-10 college football team. Those are
the 4-stars and 5-stars.
4. Draft position was clearly higher depending upon
star rating, but the difference was not great.
5. Of the 255 players drafted
into the NFL each year about 100 of them could not be found anywhere in the
rivals database…..Hmmmmm.

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7 Responses to “Stars, Potential and Probability”

  1. Anonymous Says:

    I was suprised by the the numbers -considering these aren’t signed players only drafted ones. I’d love to see the analysis break down for that catogory – players that were signed not just the drafted ones. Mongoose

  2. Anonymous Says:

    If you look at the difference in the GAME itself at each level, more of the five star players have a larger impact on college sports rather than pro sports. In the pro’s you must be a balanced professional, unless you are Devin Hester, in college you can hide players disabilities better than in the pro’s. That is why college is more exciting to watch than the pro’s because more of the players have one dimension to them that makes you sit on the edge of your seat a little more waiting for them to find their nitch on the field and just explode for a play and set a quick record or tone for the game with that one play.
    Five stars are great and teams need ALOT of them three and four years after they come out of high school.
    Oh and to the rest of college football, enjoy Notre Dame’s two year vacation because they will start to own things shortly here.
    And to the coaches and teams that punished Notre Dame and to the refs that let some real shotty actions by players go ignored, THANK YOU because it just helps with motivations of all our five star players in the coming years. Don’t think they won’t show the new guys film of what happened that was sheap, unfair and overboard. And the younger guys are 5 stars too!

    GO IRISH

  3. Anonymous Says:

    I hate OSU !!! Go IRISH !! Happy ST. PATS.

  4. Irish Dutchy Says:

    Off those 24 who didn’t get drafted, how many didn’t play/perform in their last year due to injuries/academic or other reasons?

  5. Anonymous Says:

    Off those 24 who didn’t get drafted, how many didn’t play/perform in their last year due to injuries/academic or other reasons?

    Irish Dutchy

  6. LLLLoyd Carr Says:

    “A good runnig game opens up the passing game”. Charlie’s never shown appreciation for that. And — if you have a great runnig game, never pass.

    Eats the clock, beat’s up the opposition, gives confidence to all, reduces negative plays (holding, sacks,etc.), lower turn-over ratio, rests your punter, keeps NBC from too many commericial stops, works better in bad weather, even sets up the easy play-action… I’ll stop there.

    Lou knew when to run and when to pass. I’ll give him that.

  7. Brad Says:

    Just a thought, and I know there aren’t many; There are individuals that get a medical redshirt on top of their redshirt year and also LDS (Religion) that go on a two-year mission and aren’t eligible. That would put them still in college. i.e. Ben Olsen UCLA QB.

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